Since the 1970s, the field of industrial reliability has evolved significantly, in part due to the design and early operation of the first generation nuclear power plants. Indeed, the needs of this sector have led to the development of specific and innovative reliability methods, which have since been taken up and adapted by other industrial sectors, leading to the development of the management of uncertainties and Health and Usage Monitoring Systems. In this industry, reliability assessment approaches have matured. There are now methods, data and tools available that can be used with confidence for many industrial applications. The purpose of this book is to present and illustrate them with real study cases.The book addresses the evolution of reliability methods, experience feedback and expertise (as data is essential for estimating reliability), the reliability of socio-technical systems and probabilistic safety assessments, the structural reliability and probabilistic models in mechanics, the reliability of equipment and the impact of maintenance on their behavior, human and organizational factors and the impact of big data on reliability. Finally, some R&D perspectives that can be developed in the future are presented. Written by several engineers, statisticians and human and organizational factors specialists in the nuclear sector, this book is intended for all those who are faced with a reliability assessment of their installations or equipment: decision-makers, engineers, designers, operation or maintenance engineers, project managers, human and organizational factors specialists, experts and regulatory authority inspectors, teachers, researchers and doctoral students.
Andre Lannoy is an engineer-researcher, doctor in detonics, former scientific advisor at EDF R&D and author or co-author of many books, articles and communications. He also chairs the IMdR (Institut pour la Maîtrise des Risques) product commission, France, and is an honorary member of the European Safety, Reliability& Data Association.
Foreword byPhilippe Le Poacxi
Foreword byAntoine Grall xvii
Preface xxi
André Lannoy
Acknowledgments xxiii
André Lannoy
Author Biographies xxv
Chapter 1 Aims and Introduction 1
André Lannoy
1.1 The aims of this work 1
1.2 Reliability, an application of probability theory 2
1.2.1 What is reliability? 2
1.2.2 The early days of reliability 3
1.2.3 The birth of modern reliability 5
1.2.4 The development of modern reliability 19481960 5
1.2.5 The advent of reliability specialists 19601974 6
1.2.6 The safety culture decade 19751990 7
1.2.7 Maximizing efficiency, performances and profits 19902007 8
1.2.8 The return to safety, risk aversion 20072020 9
1.3 Generating nuclear power 10
1.4 Presentation of the books content 15
1.5 References 17
Chapter 2 Input Data: Operation Feedback and Expertise 21
André Lannoy and Emmanuel Remy
2.1 The purposes of operation feedback 21
2.2 What is operation feedback? 23
2.3 The operation feedback approach 25
2.4 Event operation feedback 28
2.5 Equipment operation feedback 29
2.5.1 The maintenance model: an approach according to function 29
2.5.2 Failure analysis 31
2.5.3 Failure criteria 33
2.5.4 Data quality 33
2.6 Reliability analysis 35
2.6.1 The components studied 35
2.6.2 Data characteristics 36
2.6.3 Principles of simple reliability data estimation for PSAs 38
2.7 Conclusion 39
2.8 References 41
Chapter 3 The Principles of Calculating Reliability in Level 1 PSAs 43
Marc Bouissou
3.1 Introduction 43
3.2 The basis of all calculations: an exponential approximation 45
3.2.1 The principle of exponential approximations 45
3.2.2 NRI exponential approximation 46
3.3 The models used 48
3.3.1 Event trees 48
3.3.2 Fault trees 51
3.4 Quantification of PSAs 54
3.4.1 Calculating the probability of UCs that are conditional on an initiator 55
3.4.2 Calculating importance factors 57
3.4.3 The uncertainty calculation 59
3.5 The question of the level of detail 60
3.6 Practical problems: model size, high probabilities 62
3.6.1 Model size and combinatorial explosion 63
3.6.2 Fire, flood and earthquake PSAs: the problem of high probabilities 64
3.7 Cousin models of PSA models 65
3.7.1 Event sequence diagrams 65
3.7.2 Bow tie diagram 66
3.7.3 Boolean logic-driven Markov processes 66
3.8 How can we improve the precision of classic PSAs? 70
3.8.1 Principles of the I&AB method 70
3.8.2 What gains does I&AB allow? 71
3.8.3 Numerical application of I&AB 72
3.9 A line of research: dynamic PSAs 75
3.10 Software for carrying out PSAs 76
3.11 References 78
Chapter 4 Structural Reliability: General Presentation, Applications for Nuclear Power Plants 83
Emmanuel Ardillon
4.1 General presentation of SRA 83
4.1.1 Why SRA? 83
4.1.2 What does SRA consist of? 86
4.1.3 Old foundations but a recent history 87
4.1.4 SRA: from the R-S elementary case (resistance-stress method) to the general case 88
4.1.5 A brief overview of calculation methods 90
4.1.6 OpenTURNS: the processing tool for uncertainty quantifications co-developed and used at EDF 95
4.2 Structural reliability in the nuclear power generation industry 97
4.2.1 Optimizing the maintenance policy for steam generators 98
4.2.2 Risk of fast fracture of PWR reactor pressure vessels 98
4.3 The pressurizer, an example of an exploratory exercise in the application of probabilistic approaches 100
4.4 Probabilistic optimization of the maintenance of nuclear power plant steel components 102
4.4.1 Introduction 102
4.4.2 Specifying the problem (stage A) 103
4.4.3 Uncertainty quantification (stage B) 105
4.4.4 Uncertainty propagation: calculating the overall risk of thinning points (stage C) 106
4.4.5 Using probabilistic results: determining points to repair 107
4.4.6 Conclusion and perspectives on this application 108
4.5 Structural reliability for hydroelectricity the reliability of penstocks: evaluation of calculation values for mechanical strength diagnostics 110
4.6 Conclusion 112
4.7 References 113
Chapter 5 Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling for the Reliability of Industrial Equipment 117
Emmanuel Remy
5.1 Introduction 117
5.2 Some general preliminary remarks 118
5.3 Nonparametric approaches 124
5.4 Parametric models 126
5.4.1 Introduction 126
5.4.2 Some models adapted to non-repairable components 127
5.4.3 Taking account of influencing factors 132
5.4.4 Imperfect maintenance models for repairable equipment 135
5.4.5 Stochastic degradation models 140
5.5 Frequentist inference 147
5.6 Bayesian statistics 153
5.7 Model validation and selection 157
5.8 Case study for illustration 160
5.9 Openings and prospects for R&D 163
5.10 Software tools 164
5.11 References 164
Chapter 6 The Human and Organizational Dimensions of Reliability and Nuclear Safety 171
Nicolas Dechy, Yves Dien And Jean-François Vautier
6.1 Introduction and historical context in the nuclear field 171
6.2 Definition of the human and organizational dimensions of dependability and nuclear safety 173
6.3 Theories on accidents and reliability 175
6.4 Human and social sciences methods for collecting and analyzing data 181
6.5 Making human activities reliable 183
6.5.1 Human error: man is a fallible reliability agent 183
6.5.2 Training 185
6.5.3 Applying the procedure or demonstrating skills? 187
6.5.4 Analyzing real activity and work situations 188
6.5.5 Manmachine interfaces: the case of control rooms 189
6.5.6 Consideration of HOFs during design and modifications 190
6.5.7 Operation actions and their feasibility 191
6.5.8 Quantitative approach to human reliability 192
6.5.9 HF in maintenance interventions 193
6.6 Making the organization of work and risk management reliable 194
6.6.1 Quality approach and safety management systems 195
6.6.2 Safety culture 196
6.6.3 Forward planning of skills and workforce human resources management 197
6.6.4 Managing safety on a daily basis and decision-making 198
6.6.5 Risk analysis, anticipation 199
6.6.6 Adaptation, resilience, emergency and crisis 201
6.6.7 Event analysis and the operating experience feedback process 202
6.6.8 Conducting organizational change 203
6.6.9 Organizing maintenance and subcontractors work 204
6.7 Cross-cutting aspects 206
6.7.1 The challenges of integration, organization and time 206
6.7.2 The contribution of the systemic approach 207
6.7.3 Reflexivity and critical approach 209
6.7.4 HOF specialists and HOF relays: the contribution of HOF networks 209
6.8 Conclusion and perspectives 210
6.9 References 211
Chapter 7 From Too Little to Too Much: The Impact of Big Data 225
André Lannoy and Emmanuel Remy
7.1 Introduction 225
7.2 Toward a better understanding? 227
7.2.1 New ways of collecting operation feedback 227
7.2.2 The importance of pre-processing and validation 229
7.2.3 A more accurate vision of the usage profile 230
7.2.4 Toward big data methods 231
7.2.5 Reliability approaches 232
7.2.6 A posteriori processing or visualization 236
7.3 Diagnostics and prognostics 236
7.3.1 Diagnostics 236
7.3.2 The prognostics 238
7.3.3 Classical reliability models for prognostics 239
7.4 Trust 240
7.5 Conclusion and perspectives 241
7.6 References 242
Chapter 8 Conclusions and Prospects 245
André Lannoy
8.1 Nuclear power plants and the progress of reliability 246
8.2 Challenges linked to reliability? 248
8.3 Prospects for future 249
8.3.1 Operational feedback data and data quality 249
8.3.2 On system reliability 250
8.3.3 On the reliability of structures 251
8.3.4 On data from big data and the reliability of equipment 252
8.3.5 On the reliability of organizations and activities 253
8.4 References 255
List of Authors 257
Index 259
