Foreword BySen.MarkWarner xv
Foreword ByProf.AndrewOdlyzko xxi
Preface xxxiii
How to Use this Book xxxvii
About the Companion Website xxxix
1 Origins of Critical Infrastructure Protection 1
1.1 Recognition 3
1.2 Natural Disaster Recovery 4
1.3 Definitional Phase 5
1.4 PublicPrivate Cooperation 8
1.5 Federalism: Whole of Government 8
1.6 Rise of the Framework 10
1.7 Implementing a Risk Strategy 12
1.7.1 RiskInformed DecisionMaking 13
1.7.2 ResilienceInformed DecisionMaking 14
1.7.3 Prevention or Response? 15
1.8 Analysis 16
1.8.1 The PublicPrivate Partnership (PPP) Conundrum 17
1.8.2 The Information Sharing Conundrum 17
1.8.3 Climate Change Conundrum 17
1.8.4 The Funding Conundrum 17
1.8.5 Spend 80% on 20% of the Country 18
1.9 Exercises 18
1.10 Discussions 19
References 20
2 Risk Strategies 21
2.1 Expected Utility Theory 23
2.1.1 ThreatAsset Pairs 24
2.2 PRA and Fault Trees 24
2.2.1 An Example: Your Car 26
2.3 MRBA and Resource Allocation 26
2.3.1 Another Example: Redundant Power 27
2.4 Cyber Kill Chains are Fault Trees 28
2.5 PRA in the Supply Chain 29
2.6 Protection Versus Response 30
2.7 Threat is an Output 32
2.8 Bayesian Belief Networks 33
2.8.1 A Bayesian Network for Threat 33
2.8.2 Predictive Analytics 34
2.9 Risk of a Natural Disaster 35
2.9.1 Exceedence 35
2.9.2 EP vs. PML Risk 35
2.10 Earthquakes 36
2.11 Black Swans and Risk 36
2.12 Black Swan Floods 37
2.13 Are Natural Disasters Getting Worse? 38
2.14 Black Swan Al Qaeda Attacks 38
2.15 Black Swan Pandemic 39
2.16 Risk and Resilience 41
2.17 Exercises 42
2.18 Discussions 43
References 43
3 Theories of Catastrophe 44
3.1 Normal Accident Theory (NAT) 45
3.2 Blocks and Springs 46
3.3 Baks Punctuated Equilibrium Theory 48
3.4 Tragedy of the Commons (TOC) 51
3.4.1 The State Space Diagram 52
3.5 The US Electric Power Grid 52
3.6 Paradox of Enrichment (POE) 55
3.6.1 The Great Recessions 56
3.6.2 Too Much Money 56
3.7 Competitive Exclusion Principle (CEP) 57
3.7.1 Gauses Law 58
3.7.2 The SelfOrganizing Internet 58
3.7.3 A Monoculture 59
3.8 Paradox of Redundancy (POR) 59
3.9 Resilience of Complex Infrastructure Systems 60
3.9.1 Expected Utility and Risk 60
3.9.2 Countering SOC 60
3.9.3 The TOC Test 61
3.9.4 POE and Nonlinearity 61
3.9.5 CEP and Loss of Redundancy 61
3.9.6 POR and Percolation 62
3.10 Emergence 62
3.10.1 Opposing Forces in Emergent CIKR 62
3.11 Exercises 63
3.12 Discussions 64
References 64
4 Complex CIKR Systems 66
4.1 CIKR as Networks 69
4.1.1 Emergence 72
4.1.2 Classes of CIKR Networks 74
4.1.3 SelfOrganized Networks 75
4.2 Cascading CIKR Systems 76
4.2.1 The Fundamental Resilience Line 80
4.2.2 Critical Factors and Cascades 81
4.2.3 Targeted Attacks 82
4.3 Network Flow Risk and Resilience 85
4.3.1 Braesss Paradox 86
4.3.2 Flow Network Resilience 87
4.4 Paradox of Redundancy 88
4.4.1 Link Percolation and Robustness 88
4.4.2 Node Percolation and Robustness 89
4.4.3 Blocking Nodes 89
4.5 Network Risk 91
4.5.1 Crude Oil and Keystone XL 92
4.5.2 MBRA Network Resource Allocation 92
4.6 The Fragility Framework 96
4.6.1 The Hodges Fragility Framework 96
4.6.2 The Hodges Fault Tree 97
4.7 Exercises 98
4.8 Discussions 99
References 100
5 Communications 101
5.1 Early Years 102
5.2 Regulatory Structure 105
5.3 The Architecture of the Communications Sector 106
5.3.1 Physical Infrastructure 107
5.3.2 Wireless Networks 108
5.3.3 Extraterrestrial Communication 108
5.3.4 Land Earth Stations 109
5.3.5 Cellular Networks 110
5.3.6 Generations 110
5.3.7 WiFi Technology 111
5.4 Risk and Resilience Analysis 111
5.4.1 Importance of Carrier Hotels 113
5.4.2 Network Analysis 114
5.4.3 Flow Analysis 116
5.4.4 Robustness 116
5.4.5 The Submarine Cable Network 117
5.4.6 HPM Attacks 117
5.5 Cellular Network Threats 118
5.5.1 Cyber Threats 119
5.5.2 HPMLike Threats 120
5.5.3 Physical Threats 120
5.6 Analysis 120
5.7 Exercises 121
5.8 Discussions 122
References 122
6 Internet 123
6.1 The Internet Monoculture 125
6.1.1 The Original Sin 127
6.1.2 How TCP/IP Works 128
6.1.3 More Original Sin 130
6.2 Analyzing The Autonomous System Network 130
6.2.1 The AS500 Network 130
6.2.2 Countermeasures 132
6.3 The RFC Process 133
6.3.1 Emergence of Email 133
6.3.2 Emergence of TCP/IP 133
6.4 The Internet of Things (IOT) 134
6.4.1 Data Scraping 135
6.4.2 IoT Devices 135
6.4.3 More IoT Exploits 136
6.5 Commercialization 137
6.6 The World Wide Web 137
6.7 Internet Governance 138
6.7.1 IAB and IETF 138
6.7.2 ICANN Wars 140
6.7.3 ISOC 141
6.7.4 W3C 141
6.8 Internationalization 142
6.9 Regulation and Balkanization 142
6.10 Exercises 143
6.11 Discussions 144
7 Cyber Threats 145
7.1 Threat Surface 146
7.1.1 Script Kiddies 148
7.1.2 BlackHats 149
7.1.3 Weaponized Exploits 149
7.1.4 Ransomware and the NSA 150
7.2 Basic Vulnerabilities 151
7.2.1 The First Exploit 152
7.2.2 TCP/IP Flaws 153
7.2.3 Open Ports 154
7.2.4 Buffer Overflow Exploits 155
7.2.5 DDoS Attacks 155
7.2.6 Email Exploits 156
7.2.7 Flawed Application and System Software 157
7.2.8 Trojans, Worms, Viruses, and Keyloggers 158
7.2.9 Hacking the DNS 159
7.3 Botnets 159
7.3.1 Hardware Flaws 160
7.4 Cyber Risk Analysis 161
7.5 Cyber Infrastructure Risk 161
7.5.1 Blocking Node Analysis 163
7.5.2 Machine Learning Approach 165
7.5.3 Kill Chain Approach 165
7.6 Analysis 166
7.7 Exercises 166
7.8 Discussions 168
References 168
8 Information Technology (IT) 169
8.1 Principles of IT Security 171
8.2 Enterprise Systems 171
8.2.1 Loss of Service 172
8.2.2 Loss of Data 172
8.2.3 Loss of Security 172
8.3 Cyber Defense 173
8.3.1 Authenticate Users 173
8.3.2 Trusted Path 174
8.3.3 Inside the DMZ 175
8.4 Basics of Encryption 176
8.4.1 DES 177
8.4.2 3DES 177
8.4.3 AES 177
8.5 Asymmetric Encryption 177
8.5.1 Public Key Encryption 179
8.5.2 RSA Illustrated 180
8.5.3 Shors Algorithm 180
8.6 PKI 181
8.6.1 Definition of PKI 182
8.6.2 Certificates 182
8.6.3 Blockchain 183
8.6.4 FIDO and WebAuth 184
8.6.5 Mathematics of Passwords 184
8.7 Countermeasures 185
8.8 Exercises 187
8.9 Discussions 188
References 188
9 Hacking Social Networks 189
9.1 Web 2.0 and the Social Network 190
9.2 Social Networks Amplify Memes 193
9.3 Topology Matters 194
9.4 Computational Propaganda 194
9.5 The ECHO Chamber 197
9.6 Big Data Analytics 198
9.6.1 Algorithmic Bias 199
9.6.2 The Depths of Deep Learning 200
9.6.3 Data Brokers 200
9.7 GDPR 201
9.8 Social Network Resilience 202
9.9 The Regulated Web 203
9.9.1 The Century of Regulation 203
9.10 Exercises 204
9.11 Discussions 205
References 206
10 Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition 207
10.1 What is SCADA? 208
10.2 SCADA Versus Enterprise Computing Differences 209
10.3 Common Threats 210
10.4 Who is in Charge? 211
10.5 SCADA Everywhere 212
10.6 SCADA Risk Analysis 213
10.7 NISTCSF 216
10.8 SFPUC SCADA Redundancy 216
10.8.1 Redundancy as a Resiliency Mechanism 218
10.8.2 Risk Reduction and Resource Allocation 220
10.9 Industrial Control of Power Plants 221
10.9.1 Maximum PML 221
10.9.2 Recovery 221
10.9.3 Node Resilience 222
10.10 Analysis 225
10.11 Exercises 227
10.12 Discussions 228
11 Water and Water Treatment 229
11.1 From Germs to Terrorists 230
11.1.1 Safe Drinking Water Act 231
11.1.2 The WaterISAC 231
11.2 Foundations: SDWA of 1974 232
11.3 The Bioterrorism Act of 2002 232
11.3.1 Is Water for Drinking? 233
11.3.2 Climate Change and Rot: The New Threats 234
11.4 The Architecture of Water Systems 235
11.4.1 The Law of The River 235
11.5 The Hetch Hetchy Network 235
11.5.1 Bottleneck Analysis 236
11.6 Risk Analysis 238
11.6.1 Multidimensional Analysis 238
11.6.2 Blocking Nodes 239
11.7 Hetch Hetchy Investment Strategies 239
11.7.1 The Rational Actor Attacker 240
11.8 Hetch Hetchy Threat Analysis 242
11.8.1 Chem/Bio Threats 242
11.8.2 Earthquake Threats 244
11.8.3 Allocation to Harden ThreatAsset Pairs 244
11.9 Analysis 245
11.10 Exercises 246
11.11 Discussions 247
References 248
12 Energy 249
12.1 Energy Fundamentals 251
12.2 Regulatory Structure of the Energy Sector 252
12.2.1 Evolution of Energy Regulation 252
12.2.2 Other Regulations 253
12.2.3 The Energy ISAC 254
12.3 Interdependent Coal 254
12.3.1 Interdependency with Transportation 254
12.4 The Rise of Oil and the Automobile 255
12.4.1 Oil 255
12.4.2 Natural Gas 256
12.5 Energy Supply Chains 256
12.5.1 PADDs 257
12.5.2 Refineries 258
12.5.3 Transmission 258
12.5.4 Transport4 259
12.5.5 Storage 259
12.5.6 Natural Gas Supply Chains 259
12.5.7 SCADA 259
12.6 The Critical Gulf of Mexico Cluster 259
12.6.1 Refineries 260
12.6.2 Transmission Pipelines 260
12.6.3 Storage 262
12.7 Threat Analysis of the Gulf of Mexico Supply Chain 265
12.8 Network Analysis of the Gulf of Mexico Supply Chain 266
12.9 The Keystonexl Pipeline Controversy 267
12.10 The Natural Gas Supply Chain 268
12.11 Analysis 270
12.12 Exercises 270
12.13 Discussions 271
References 272
13 Electric Power 273
13.1 The Grid 274
13.2 From Death Rays to Vertical Integration 275
13.2.1 Early Regulation 276
13.2.2 Deregulation and EPACT 1992 278
13.2.3 Energy Sector ISAC 278
13.3 Out of Orders 888 and 889 Comes Chaos 279
13.3.1 Economics Versus Physics 280
13.3.2 Betweenness Increases SOC 281
13.4 The North American Grid 281
13.4.1 ACE and Kirchhoffs Law 283
13.5 Anatomy of a Blackout 283
13.5.1 What Happened on August 14 285
13.6 Threat Analysis 286
13.6.1 Attack Scenario 1: Disruption of Fuel Supply to Power Plants 286
13.6.2 Attack Scenario 2: Destruction of Major Transformers 287
13.6.3 Attack Scenario 3: Disruption of SCADA Communications 287
13.6.4 Attack Scenario 4: Creation of a Cascading Transmission Failure 287
13.7 Risk Analysis 288
13.8 Analysis of WECC96 288
13.9 Analysis 291
13.10 Exercises 292
13.11 Discussions 294
References 294
14 Healthcare and Public Health 295
14.1 The Sector Plan 296
14.2 Roemers Model 297
14.2.1 Components of Roemers Model 298
14.3 The Complexity of Public Health 299
14.4 Risk Analysis of HPH Sector 300
14.5 Bioterrorism 300
14.5.1 Classification of Biological Agents 301
14.6 Epidemiology 303
14.6.1 The KermackMcKendrick Model 303
14.6.2 SARS 304
14.7 Predicting Pandemics 304
14.7.1 The Levy Flight Theory of Pandemics 306
14.8 BioSurveillance 307
14.8.1 HealthMap 307
14.8.2 Big Data 307
14.8.3 GeoSentinel 308
14.9 Network Pandemics 309
14.10 The World Travel Network 310
14.11 Exercises 312
14.12 Discussions 313
References 313
15 Transportation 314
15.1 Transportation Under Transformation 316
15.2 The Road to Prosperity 319
15.2.1 Economic Impact 319
15.2.2 The National Highway System (NHS) 319
15.2.3 The Interstate Highway Network Is Resilient 320
15.2.4 The NHS Is Safer 320
15.3 Rail 320
15.3.1 Birth of Regulation 322
15.3.2 Freight Trains 323
15.3.3 Passenger Rail 324
15.3.4 Commuter Rail Resiliency 324
15.4 Air 325
15.4.1 Resilience of the HubandSpoke Network 326
15.4.2 Security of Commercial Air Travel 328
15.4.3 How Safe and Secure Is Flying in the United States? 329
15.5 Airport Games 330
15.5.1 GUARDS 330
15.5.2 Bayesian Belief Networks 331
15.6 Exercises 331
15.7 Discussions 332
References 332
16 Supply Chains 334
16.1 The World Is Flat, But Tilted 335
16.1.1 SupplySide Supply 336
16.1.2 The Father of Containerization 337
16.1.3 The Perils of Efficient Supply Chains 337
16.2 The World Trade Web 340
16.2.1 Economic Contagions 342
16.3 Risk Assessment 344
16.3.1 MSRAM 344
16.3.2 PROTECT 345
16.4 Analysis 346
16.5 Exercises 347
16.6 Discussions 347
References 348
17 Banking and Finance 349
17.1 The Financial System 351
17.1.1 Federal Reserve vs. US Treasury 352
17.1.2 Operating the System 353
17.1.3 Balancing the Balance Sheet 353
17.1.4 Paradox of Enrichment 354
17.2 Financial Networks 355
17.2.1 FedWire 355
17.2.2 TARGET 356
17.2.3 SWIFT 356
17.2.4 Credit Card Networks 356
17.2.5 3D Secure Payment 357
17.3 Virtual Currency 358
17.3.1 Intermediary PayPal 358
17.3.2 ApplePay 358
17.3.3 Cryptocurrency 359
17.4 Hacking The Financial Network 361
17.5 Hot Money 363
17.5.1 The Dutch Disease 364
17.6 The End of Stimulus? 364
17.7 Fractal Markets 365
17.7.1 Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) 366
17.7.2 Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH) 366
17.7.3 Predicting Collapse 367
17.8 Exercises 369
17.9 Discussions 370
References 370
18 Strategies for a Networked Nation 371
18.1 Whole of Government 372
18.2 Risk and Resilience 373
18.3 Complex and Emergent CIKR 373
18.4 Communications and the Internet 374
18.5 Information Technology (IT) 375
18.6 Surveillance Capitalism 375
18.7 Industrial Control Systems 376
18.8 Energy and Power 376
18.9 Global Pandemics 377
18.10 Transportation and Supply Chains 377
18.11 Banking and Finance 378
18.12 Discussions 378
Appendix A: Math: Probability Primer 379
A.1 A Priori Probability 379
A.2 A Pori Probability 381
A.3 Random Networks 382
A.4 Conditional Probability 383
A.5 Bayesian Networks 384
A.6 Bayesian Reasoning 385
References 387
Further Reading 388
Appendix B: Math: Risk and Resilience 389
B.1 Expected Utility Theory 390
B.1.1 Fault Trees 390
B.1.2 Fault Tree Minimization 391
B.1.3 XOR Fault Tree Allocation Algorithm 392
B.2 Bayesian Estimation 392
B.2.1 Bayesian Networks 392
B.3 Exceedence and PML Risk 394
B.3.1 Modeling EP 394
B.3.2 Estimating EP From Data 395
B.3.3 How to Process TimeSeries Data 396
B.4 Network Risk 397
B.5 ModelBased Risk Analysis (MBRA) 398
B.5.1 Network Resource Allocation 401
B.5.2 Simulation 402
B.5.3 Cascade Risk 402
B.5.4 Flow Risk 402
References 403
Appendix C: Math: Spectral Radius 404
C.1 Network as Matrix 404
C.2 Matrix Diagonalization 404
C.3 Relationship to Risk and Resilience 406
C.3.1 Equation 1 406
C.3.2 Equation 2 407
Reference 407
Appendix D: Math: Tragedy of the Commons 408
D.1 LotkaVolterra Model 408
D.2 HopfHolling Model 408
Appendix E: Math: The DES and RSA Algorithm 410
E.1 DES Encryption 410
E.2 RSA Encryption 410
Appendix F: Glossary 412
Index 414
